Ukraine's Canceled Drone Plan to Target Moscow Airports: What We Know

Ukraine’s Alleged Plan to Target Russian Airports with Drones

William Spaniel begins by explaining that the alleged operation, codenamed "M&Ms," involved Ukraine planning to disrupt Moscow's airports with swarms of AI-guided drones. These drones were larger than basic quadcopters but smaller than those previously used in Ukraine's broader campaigns targeting logistics hubs, oil refineries, and commercial outlets like Wildberries. The aim was to send a substantial number of drones from Ukraine to overwhelm Russian air defenses and carry out precision strikes on critical airport infrastructure.

According to Spaniel, the primary goal was not merely military but economic and psychological. By targeting airports that are hubs for business and tourism, and inflicting substantial damage, the operation sought to make air travel around Moscow effectively impossible. This would disrupt operations for both domestic and international airlines. The hope was to erode confidence among global carriers like Turkish Airways and Emirates in flying to or from Russia. If airlines were persuaded to pull out due to safety or insurance risks, such as the potential targeting and loss of planes, Russia’s economy could take a significant hit.

Spaniel adds that major capital-intensive industries rely on insurance to function, whether for facilities or assets such as aircraft. Once air travel is deemed unsafe due to potential attacks, insurers may withdraw their coverage or exclude acts of war, creating untenable risks for commercial airlines. Ukrainian planners believed this could force airlines to either cease operations in Moscow or relocate their activities elsewhere, thereby isolating Russia economically and logistically.

The operation was reportedly shelved in July, coinciding with the de facto dismissal of Ukraine's Minister of Defense, Mykhailo Fedorov, a central figure in many of Ukraine's more creative battlefield strategies. Officially, Ukraine denies that such an operation was ever in the works.

Evaluating the Effectiveness and Risks of the Proposed Operation

Spaniel critically examines the potential effectiveness of the drone attack strategy. He acknowledges that such an operation would certainly grab international headlines, much like the response seen after Ukraine's earlier "Operation Spiderweb." The metaphorical comparison is made to the deliberate focus terrorist groups have historically placed on aviation due to its centrality to commerce and its psychological impact.

In purely economic terms, he agrees that the proposed operation would have been disruptive, likely triggering a financial chain reaction due to insurance implications for airlines and infrastructure. Losses at airports, which are vital for business and tourism, would ripple across industries, impacting Russia’s economy.

Yet Spaniel cautions against overly optimistic expectations. He highlights a common misstep in evaluating military operations: equating a single event to a potential war-ending moment. He states that conflicts do not end through isolated acts but through shifts in leverage, bargaining dynamics, and anticipated costs for the warring parties. While striking Moscow airports might create temporary leverage against Russia, the operation alone was unlikely to end the war, nor would it resolve wider geopolitical tensions.

Furthermore, Spaniel outlines another layer of intent behind targeting Moscow's airports: the potential impact on the oligarchs, Russia's wealthiest and most influential individuals who rely heavily on air travel. This proposed disruption could have theoretically pressured oligarchs to push Vladimir Putin toward reconsidering the value of the war. However, Spaniel argues that the oligarch class is likely already disillusioned with the war, given the economic strain it has caused them. He suggests that effective pressure would require targeting sectors that directly affect a broader swath of Russian society, such as gas station supply chains or retail distribution networks like Wildberries.

Despite these caveats, Spaniel does not dismiss the idea entirely. Disrupting Russia's economy and creating general disarray within the country remain useful objectives, even if they fail to bring about an end to the conflict. Nonetheless, he stresses that the risks involved in such an operation are considerable.

Challenges in Implementation: Technical and Ethical Considerations

According to Spaniel, one of the greatest difficulties facing the "M&Ms" proposal was the technical challenge of ensuring each drone would successfully hit its intended target. While smaller, AI-guided drones would have been harder to detect and shoot down, their smaller payloads also posed limitations on the level of damage they could inflict. Unlike previous operations targeting fixed locations such as warehouses or refineries, where drones could rely on GPS coordinates combined with satellite imagery, the dynamic environment of an airport presents distinct challenges.

Spaniel explains that striking specific locations, such as airport concourses, applies a different level of complexity. Besides being harder to target accurately, airport structures like concourses don’t naturally ignite, making substantial damage difficult to achieve. More importantly, he notes that even when concourses are hit, they are not essential for an airport's basic functionality. Flights could potentially continue despite property damage.

For these reasons, Spaniel notes that the operation would have needed to prioritize targeting aircraft themselves to achieve significant disruption. However, destroying planes comes with further complications. Unlike airport terminals, airplanes are dynamic and not tied to static GPS coordinates. The plan reportedly included the deployment of autonomous drones capable of recognizing planes and acting without direct human oversight. However, relying on AI in such a significant capacity raises both logistical and ethical red flags, especially for distinguishing between military and civilian aircraft or ensuring occupied planes are not targeted.

Spaniel also brings up Ukraine's potential reliance on external technologies like SpaceX's Starlink network for real-time human intervention in the kill chain. While such a solution could have maintained human oversight, he notes that Elon Musk's opposition to using Starlink for military operations effectively ruled out this possibility.

On ethical grounds, Spaniel emphasizes the high stakes of civilian casualties. He recalls the precedent set by the September 11 attacks, noting the international condemnation of attacks on civilian aviation. While Ukraine's own airports and civilian flights have been devastated by the war, making them less likely to be swayed by Western legal criticisms, practical concerns about killing non-combatants, including international travelers, undoubtedly played a role in shelving the operation. Additionally, targeting civilian airports could serve as a pretext for Russia to escalate its war efforts further through another wave of military mobilizations.

The Role of Political Dynamics in Canceling the Operation

Spaniel suggests that the revelation of the drone plan provides valuable insight into Ukraine's internal political dynamics, particularly surrounding the dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov. Fedorov had earned public acclaim for his unorthodox strategies, from targeting Russian logistics in Crimea to incentivizing Ukrainian military units with bonuses for strategic victories. However, his departure was met with significant backlash domestically and internationally, especially as President Volodymyr Zelensky was accused of sidelining innovative thinkers in favor of older, Soviet-style military strategists.

Spaniel speculates that Fedorov's dismissal and the shelving of the airport operation may be connected. He raises the possibility that Fedorov’s staunch advocacy for the risky drone operation put him at odds with Zelensky, ultimately leading to his removal. Alternatively, Spaniel muses that Fedorov’s insistence on the airport operation might have been the very cause for the “leak” of the plan, potentially an attempt by Fedorov’s allies to push Ukraine into proceeding with the strategy.

Ultimately, Spaniel describes Fedorov as a supremely creative strategist who lacked the political finesse to navigate the broader implications of his ideas. While innovative and "clever," the airport operation required a level of political and strategic consideration that may have been beyond Fedorov’s capacity as defense minister. Spaniel concludes this section by warning against dismissing the broader political calculations behind decisions like halting the operation or removing Fedorov from his post. These decisions extend beyond the tactical sphere and are influenced by an intricate web of military and political priorities.

What was said, and when

The points this article makes, and the moment in the recording where each was said. Every time below opens the recording at that moment.

• The alleged operation, codenamed 'M&Ms,' involved Ukraine planning to disrupt Moscow's airports with swarms of AI-guided drones. 00:51.
• These drones were larger than basic quadcopters but smaller than those previously used in Ukraine's broader campaigns targeting logistics hubs, oil refineries, and commercial outlets like Wildberries. 00:51.
• The aim was to send a substantial number of drones from Ukraine to overwhelm Russian air defenses and carry out precision strikes on critical airport infrastructure. 00:51.
• According to Spaniel, the primary goal was not merely military but economic and psychological. 01:25.
• The operation sought to make air travel around Moscow effectively impossible by targeting airports that are hubs for business and tourism and inflicting substantial damage. 00:51.
• The plan was to disrupt operations for both domestic and international airlines in Russia. 01:25.
• The hope was to erode confidence among global carriers like Turkish Airways and Emirates in flying to or from Russia. 02:08.
• Major capital-intensive industries rely on insurance to function, which includes coverage for facilities and assets such as aircraft. 01:36.
• Spaniel asserts that Ukrainian planners believed that insurance issues could force airlines to cease operations in Moscow or relocate their activities, isolating Russia economically and logistically. 02:08.
• The operation was reportedly shelved in July, coinciding with the de facto dismissal of Ukraine's Minister of Defense, Mykhailo Fedorov. 02:19.
• Internal political dynamics likely affected the execution and shelving of the operation. 14:37.
• Spaniel discusses that while striking Moscow airports might create temporary leverage against Russia, the operation alone was unlikely to end the war. 04:18.
• Spaniel outlines that targeting Moscow's airports could have impacted oligarchs who rely heavily on air travel. 04:51.
• The oligarch class is likely already disillusioned with the war due to economic strains. 05:07.
• Spaniel highlights the significant risks involved in conducting such an operation. 15:23.
• The technical difficulty of ensuring each drone would successfully hit its intended target. 06:06.
• Spaniel discusses that smaller, AI-guided drones, while harder to detect and shoot down, posed limitations on payloads and damage potential. 06:12.
• The dynamic environment of an airport is more challenging to target accurately compared to fixed locations. 07:36.
• Airport concourses do not naturally ignite, making substantial damage harder to achieve. 07:07.
• Airport functionality could continue despite damage to concourses. 07:07.
• Aircraft themselves would need to be prioritized for targeting to achieve significant disruption at airports. 07:23.
• Targeting airplanes comes with complications since airplanes are dynamic and not tied to static GPS coordinates. 06:39.
• The proposed plan included deploying autonomous drones capable of recognizing planes and operating without direct human oversight. 07:41.
• Ethical challenges in relying on AI systems to distinguish between military and civilian aircraft. 08:09.
• Ukraine's potential reliance on technologies like SpaceX's Starlink network for real-time human intervention in the kill chain. 09:01.
• Elon Musk's opposition to using Starlink for military operations ruled out its possibility. 09:11.
• Spaniel recalls the precedent set by the September 11 attacks regarding international condemnation of attacks on civilian aviation. 10:19.
• Targeting civilian airports could serve as a pretext for Russia to escalate its war efforts through military mobilizations. 10:13.
• Mykhailo Fedorov's advocacy for the drone operation might have put him at odds with President Volodymyr Zelensky. 10:19.
• Spaniel proposes the dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov might be connected to the shelving of the airport operation. 13:45.