Saudi Arabia and Yemen: Understanding the Continued Conflict

Overview of the Current Conflict

CaspianReport highlights that Houthi operations in the Red Sea have evolved from targeting Israeli interests to focusing on Saudi targets. Since late 2023, the Houthis have engaged in maritime attacks, initially portrayed as solidarity actions for Palestinian causes. However, the attacks also appear to be strategically aimed at controlling crucial waterways like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The analyst notes that on July 20th, the Houthis escalated tensions by announcing an embargo on vessels connected to Saudi Arabia. Within days, they claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, one of which has been independently confirmed. These actions triggered a response from shipping companies, with at least eight vessels rerouting to avoid the potentially dangerous Bab el-Mandeb. Some of these ships opted for lengthier journeys through the Suez Canal, which significantly increases transit times to Asian markets.

The conflict is not limited to maritime threats. CaspianReport explains that on July 13th, the Houthis launched an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport. This strike was a direct response to an earlier Saudi assault on Houthi-controlled territory in Sanaa, marking the first Houthi cross-border attack on Saudi soil in nearly four years. CaspianReport adds that these actions underscore the resurgence of tensions, warning that both parties may drastically underestimate the time and space left to de-escalate.

The host further elaborates on the broader context of the Saudi intervention in Yemen, which began in 2015 as a campaign to reinstate Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Over the years, Saudi Arabia's airstrikes in Houthi-controlled territories, combined with Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi infrastructure, led to a grinding war. Although a United Nations-mediated truce in 2022 halted large-scale fighting, economic restrictions on Houthi territories have continued to sour relations, with the Houthis framing these restrictions as their justification for retaliatory actions like the current maritime embargo.

Assessing the capacity of the Houthis to enforce a complete blockade, CaspianReport admits they lack sufficient conventional military strength to achieve this outright. However, the group has amply demonstrated its ability to render navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait both dangerous and costly. Citing the past impact of Houthi attacks on regional shipping, the report reveals that maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb is still far below pre-attack levels, operated at approximately half capacity according to data from IMF Port Watch.

The Economic and Strategic Stakes for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia faces significant vulnerabilities as a result of its dependence on chokepoint waterways, notes CaspianReport. Before the conflict with Iran escalated, the kingdom primarily relied on the Strait of Hormuz for its oil exports. However, disruptions in that region have driven Riyadh to increase its use of the East-West pipeline, which links its eastern oil fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. This strategic shift has quadrupled oil exports through Yanbu’s King Fahd Industrial Port, resulting in a daily average of approximately four million barrels by June.

CaspianReport stresses that this move, while mitigating one risk, has heightened Saudi Arabia's dependence on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for Red Sea shipping. The Houthis are leveraging this vulnerability to disrupt Saudi oil exports. Even limited attacks near the strait introduce significant economic stress, increasing insurance costs and delaying shipments. CaspianReport argues that these disruptions could push shipping companies to reroute vessels, notably through the far longer journey around Africa.

In a :::callout important title="Strategic Consequence of Houthi Tactics" :::
The Houthis do not require advanced weaponry or military superiority to exert pressure. Their strategic use of missiles, drones, and the geostrategic location of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amplifies the economic and logistical costs to Saudi Arabia. This creates a precarious situation for Riyadh, which must now address vulnerabilities in its trade routes while avoiding actions that could spark a wider conflict.

Regional and Global Implications of the Blockade

According to CaspianReport, the implications of the Houthi blockade extend beyond Saudi Arabia to the entire region and global markets. The potential disruption of Red Sea shipping could affect oil prices worldwide, especially if Saudi Arabia's oil exports are significantly obstructed. The report highlights the ripple effect such disruptions would have, with commercial shipping companies facing greater risks and economic uncertainty.

The host suggests that the risk of broader conflict is heightened due to ties between the Houthis and Iran. With the United States already targeting Iranian infrastructure and escalating tensions, Tehran has publicly urged the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb, an indication of how the Saudi-Yemeni clash could serve as a proxy for the larger Saudi-Iran rivalry. This connection exacerbates fears of a direct Saudi-Iranian conflict, putting regional stability at further risk.

The report also accounts for the possibility of international actors, such as the United States or Israel, being drawn into the situation. If Houthi attacks were to significantly disrupt Saudi oil exports, those countries might feel compelled to intervene militarily to protect global oil supplies. Speculation about a regional escalation is compounded by recent intelligence, such as satellite imagery showing Houthi troop movements that could signal either defensive posturing or preparations for a new offensive.

CaspianReport emphasizes that while neither Riyadh nor the Houthis may initially intend for the conflict to escalate, the dynamics of retaliatory strikes and heightened tensions could unintentionally spiral into a broader war.

What was said, and when

The points this article makes, and the moment in the recording where each was said. Everything below was said by CaspianReport. Every time opens the recording at that moment.

• CaspianReport highlights that Houthi operations in the Red Sea have evolved from targeting Israeli interests to focusing on Saudi targets. 00:00.
• Since late 2023, the Houthis have engaged in maritime attacks, portrayed as solidarity actions for Palestinian causes. 00:00.
• The attacks also appear strategically aimed at controlling crucial waterways like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 06:42.
• On July 20th, the Houthis escalated tensions by announcing an embargo on vessels connected to Saudi Arabia. 00:32.
• Within days of the embargo, the Houthis claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers. 00:32.
• One of the attacks on Saudi oil tankers has been independently confirmed. 00:32.
• At least eight vessels rerouted to avoid the potentially dangerous Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 00:32.
• Some ships opted for lengthier journeys through the Suez Canal, significantly increasing transit times to Asian markets. 00:32.
• On July 13th, the Houthis launched an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abha Airport. 01:10.
• The attack on Abha Airport was a response to an earlier Saudi assault on Houthi-controlled territory in Sanaa. 01:10.
• This marked the first Houthi cross-border attack on Saudi soil in nearly four years. 01:10.
• Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen began in 2015 as a campaign to reinstate Yemen’s internationally recognized government. 03:28.
• Although a United Nations-mediated truce in 2022 halted large-scale fighting, economic restrictions on Houthi territories continued to sour relations. 04:21.
• The Houthis frame these economic restrictions as justification for retaliatory actions like the current maritime embargo. 04:21.
• CaspianReport admits the Houthis lack sufficient conventional military strength to enforce a complete blockade. 04:47.
• The Houthis have demonstrated their ability to render navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait dangerous and costly. 05:00.
• Maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb is far below pre-attack levels, operated at approximately half capacity according to IMF Port Watch. 05:30.
• Saudi Arabia has increased its use of the East-West pipeline linking its eastern oil fields to King Fahd Industrial Port. 06:25.
• Oil exports through Yanbu’s King Fahd Industrial Port quadrupled, reaching a daily average of four million barrels by June. 06:25.
• The Houthis are leveraging Saudi Arabia's dependence on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to disrupt oil exports. 06:42.
• Even limited Houthi attacks near the Strait cause economic stress, increase insurance costs, and delay shipments. 06:42.
• Disruptions could push shipping companies to reroute vessels through the longer journey around Africa. 13:29.
• Iran has publicly urged the Houthis to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 07:53.
• Saudi Arabia believed the 2022 UN-mediated truce had ended major hostilities with the Houthis. 04:21.
• Unresolved issues like economic restrictions on Houthi territories provoked the latest round of maritime and cross-border attacks. 04:21.