North Korean Bombs in Ukraine: Are North Koreans Involved?

Understanding North Korean Troop Deployment to Russia

William Spaniel discusses a critical development in the Ukraine war: North Korea’s involvement through troop deployments to Russia. Following Ukraine’s 2024 incursion into the Russian region of Kursk, Moscow found itself facing a complex issue. Russian conscripts, primarily responsible for home defense, were resistant to being drawn into the broader conflict in Ukraine. Mobilization challenges and morale issues forced the Kremlin to rely on incentivized voluntary contract soldiers. However, this strategy diverted necessary personnel away from the Ukrainian front lines to defend Russian territory.

As Spaniel explains, the Kremlin turned to an unlikely ally: North Korea. Starting in October 2024, 12,000 North Korean troops were deployed to reinforce defenses in the Kursk region. North Korea's contribution came as part of a transactional agreement: in exchange for manpower, Russia provided financial assistance, technical support for North Korean weapons programs, and food aid. Although these troops were reportedly unfamiliar with the modern battlefield, their presence was significant enough to bolster Russian defenses in Kursk, eventually compelling Ukrainian forces to pull back after five months of conflict.

More recently, Spaniel notes reports of North Korea potentially deploying an additional 30,000 troops to Russia. This figure significantly exceeds the previous deployment in Kursk and raises questions about Russia’s strategy, particularly given Ukraine’s limited capacity to launch a new offensive into Russian territory in the near future. Intelligence assessments from Ukraine also suggest that Russia has been preparing logistical support in areas near its northeastern border with Ukraine, presumably to accommodate this increased North Korean presence.

The broader implications of this development spark serious concerns. While public and media focus has been on potential Russian mobilization, the confirmed evidence of intensifying collaboration between Russia and North Korea warrants closer scrutiny. Spaniel emphasizes that this partnership not only attempts to address Russia's manpower shortages but also shifts some geopolitical pressure away from Moscow, transferring the costs and risks to Pyongyang.

Use of North Korean Munitions in the Ukraine War

Expanding beyond the deployment of troops, Spaniel analyzes the recent reports of North Korean munitions being used in missile attacks on Ukraine. A striking case occurred during a barrage of missile strikes on Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia on the night of August 10-11. While Russian Iskander missiles were a part of the assault, what stood out was the reported use of North Korean-made KN-23 missiles, which are visually and operationally similar to Russia's Iskander-M systems. Proper identification of these weapons required analyzing debris, as even on radar, the two systems are nearly indistinguishable.

Spaniel outlines two main possibilities regarding the use of these North Korean missiles. The first is that North Korea has supplied these weapons to Russia, where they were subsequently utilized. This scenario would not significantly alter the dynamics of the war, as Russia has already been using North Korean missiles since late 2023.

One notable aspect of the missile strikes, as discussed by Spaniel, is the lack of effective Ukrainian defenses. Although Ukraine appears to be countering the threat of Russian drones, it remains vulnerable to ballistic missile strikes. With Western Patriot missile stocks depleting, Russia's access to North Korean missiles fills a critical gap in its arsenal. Spaniel also points out that acquiring missiles from North Korea is likely a more cost-effective option for Russia than ramping up domestic missile production.

A critical advantage for Russia in this arrangement is the avoidance of strategic vulnerabilities like those associated with Iran's Shahed drone manufacturing facilities. Unlike Iranian facilities, North Korea’s missile production infrastructure is virtually untouchable by Ukrainian forces, given the geographic and political barriers to any potential strikes.

While not definitively confirmed, the potential supply of missiles exposes an asymmetry in the conflict. In comparison, the West's cautious stance on supplying Ukraine with weapons capable of targeting Russia reveals a stark contrast to the free-flowing military exchanges within the Russia-North Korea alliance. This difference only exacerbates Ukraine’s challenge in defending its territory under a growing barrage of enemy attacks.

Potential Scenarios of North Korean Involvement

With reports of North Korean missiles in use and troops on the way, Spaniel explores possible scenarios for how this involvement could expand. One scenario is that North Korea focuses solely on providing weapons to Russia, with no direct participation in the Ukraine conflict. This would essentially formalize a transactional relationship, similar to earlier arms shipments, but could still strain geopolitical dynamics.

Alternatively, North Korea could take a more direct role, with its soldiers actively involved in operations on Ukrainian soil. While this would represent a significant escalation, Spaniel notes that such a development would push the Ukraine conflict beyond its current binary framework, between Russia and Ukraine, into a broader international conflict. If North Korean forces have been deployed to launch missiles north of Ukraine, as some reports suggest, this would represent the country’s first direct kinetic involvement in the conflict.

This leads to a crucial question: why would Russia need North Korean forces firing these missiles when it has long used such weaponry without added assistance? Spaniel considers the possibility that Russia might be laying the groundwork for a greater North Korean military role, normalizing their presence in ways that could later transform into more direct involvement. By staging North Korean personnel and equipment, Moscow may be preparing for a future escalation where North Korea serves as a willing partner willing to bear some of the operational and political burdens.

Addressing the rumored operational details, Spaniel highlights claims that approximately 90 North Korean personnel, along with six launchers and 120 missiles, are stationed near Ukraine for missile operations. If true, he argues this could point to a concerning dependence on foreign manpower, as Russia already has experienced personnel who could operate the same weapons. However, he also notes that this might not indicate immediate shortfalls in Russian military recruitment, as recent data shows that the Kremlin has reached its stated recruitment targets.

The broader implication of North Korean involvement, Spaniel explains, could be its role as a "low-cost" partner in a fragile anti-Western coalition. Unlike China, which operates within constrained political limits, and Iran, which is under significant internal and external pressure, North Korea may have both the capacity and the willingness to absorb the political and economic consequences of deepening involvement in the war. For Russia, such support could act as a lifeline, offering options to continue its campaigns while deflecting domestic and international pressure.

Still, Spaniel warns that even with evidence of growing North Korean participation, the full scope of their role remains uncertain. From arms shipments to potential direct involvement in operations, many aspects of this relationship call for more investigation before any definitive conclusions can be drawn.

What was said, and when

The points this article makes, and the moment in the recording where each was said. Every time below opens the recording at that moment.

• William Spaniel discusses North Korea’s involvement through troop deployments to Russia. 08:16.
• Ukraine launched an incursion into the Russian region of Kursk in 2024. 01:27.
• Russian conscripts resisted being drawn into the conflict in Ukraine. 01:55.
• Russia relied on incentivized voluntary contract soldiers due to mobilization challenges and morale issues. 01:55.
• In October 2024, 12,000 North Korean troops were deployed to reinforce defenses in the Kursk region. 02:39.
• Russia offered financial assistance, technical support for weapons programs, and food aid to North Korea in exchange for its troops. 03:10.
• North Korean troops contributed to Russian defenses in Kursk, compelling Ukraine to pull back after five months. 02:39.
• Reports suggest North Korea may deploy an additional 30,000 troops to Russia. 03:51.
• Intelligence assessments from Ukraine indicate logistical preparations near Russia's northeastern border with Ukraine. 04:19.
• North Korean munitions, specifically KN-23 missiles, were reportedly used in missile strikes on Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia on August 10-11. 05:10.
• KN-23 missiles are visually and operationally similar to Russia's Iskander-M systems. 05:10.
• North Korean missiles have been used by Russia since late 2023. 05:54.
• Western Patriot missile stocks in Ukraine are reportedly depleting. 06:10.
• Acquiring missiles from North Korea may be cost-effective for Russia compared to domestic production. 06:34.
• North Korea's missile production infrastructure is considered untouchable by Ukrainian forces. 06:45.
• North Korean missiles may expose an asymmetry in the conflict according to the analysis. 06:59.
• Claims report approximately 90 North Korean personnel with six launchers and 120 missiles stationed near Ukraine. 08:16.
• Russia has reached its stated recruitment targets. 08:36.
• North Korea’s involvement provides options to Russia to continue campaigns while alleviating domestic and international pressure. 10:46.
• North Korea has been described as a "low-cost" ally in an anti-Western coalition. 11:42.
• Evidence of North Korean participation exists but notes the full scope remains uncertain. 10:30.