Drones and Tanks: Allocating Defense Budgets

The Impact of Growing Defense Budgets on Military Strategy

According to Anders Puck Nielsen, rising defense budgets across Europe in response to growing geopolitical tensions present a crucial decision point for Western militaries: how should these funds be allocated? The choice is not straightforward because of the ongoing revolution in military affairs, driven by technological advancements seen in the conflict in Ukraine. Traditional platforms like tanks, fighter jets, and warships have historically defined military preparedness, but their continued relevance is now questioned in light of emerging technologies like drones and artificial intelligence.

Nielsen argues that this revolution forces a re-evaluation of how militaries should invest while ensuring they do not fall into the trap of sticking with obsolete systems. The consequences of incorrectly allocating resources could be disastrous in the event of a conflict with a peer adversary like Russia. He emphasizes the importance of aligning spending decisions with the evolving demands of modern warfare, underscoring that staying ahead of these changes is essential.

The Drone Revolution: Game-Changing Military Technology

Nielsen highlights that drones represent a transformative shift in military technology, on par with historic innovations like the invention of aircraft or tanks. The introduction of drones has created a clear line in history, dividing warfare into "before" and "after" the widespread use of these unmanned systems. Militaries must adapt to this reality, not just by adopting these technologies but also by redesigning doctrines and training programs. Soldiers will need to learn how to operate alongside drones, and while manned platforms won’t disappear, their roles will fundamentally change.

One major impact of drones is battlefield transparency, Nielsen notes. Drones have significantly diminished the attacker’s historical advantage of surprise by enabling defenders to monitor the battlefield in real time. Additionally, the lowered cost of firepower introduced by drones has vastly expanded the volume of available firepower, upending traditional dynamics. This has shifted the long-standing balance between attritional warfare (focused on inflicting losses) and maneuver warfare (focused on strategic positioning and swift movement). With the advent of drones, attritional warfare takes on renewed importance, challenging Western militaries accustomed to prioritizing maneuver-based doctrines.

Nielsen asserts that this new paradigm demands a division of labor between manned and unmanned systems. Unmanned platforms will play a primary role in attrition-focused operations, paving the way for manned platforms to engage in decisive maneuver warfare. Deploying manned platforms too early in a conflict, before the enemy has been sufficiently degraded, can lead to catastrophic outcomes.

Balancing Attrition and Maneuver in Future Warfare

As affordable firepower from unmanned technologies reshapes the battlefield, Nielsen predicts a growing emphasis on attritional warfare. With the increasing availability and reduced cost of these systems, militaries face a compelling need to reconsider their procurement and operational strategies. Western militaries, which are accustomed to prioritizing maneuver over attrition, are now faced with the challenge of adjusting to a landscape where attritional dynamics dominate. This shift has significant implications for how wars will be fought and won in the future.

Nielsen suggests that unmanned technology should mitigate attritional losses, setting up the conditions for successful maneuver warfare later in a conflict. Even with smarter technology, attrition will remain central to military strategy due to lower barriers to mass production and deployment of unmanned systems. Striking the right balance between attrition and maneuver will involve carefully determining the timing for committing manned platforms to combat operations. Missteps in this delicate balance could have devastating consequences for military efforts.

Adapting Military Procurement for Modern Challenges

Given the shifting focus toward attritional warfare, Nielsen stresses that military procurement strategies need a complete overhaul. In the past few decades, Western militaries have been structured for low-casualty operations in contexts like counterinsurgency or peacekeeping missions. High-end, costly equipment has traditionally been preferred because it was expected to sustain only minor losses in such conflicts. This approach often neglected the necessity for large-scale reserves or replacement capacity.

Nielsen argues that contemporary warfare requires a different mindset, one that emphasizes the inevitability of equipment losses in conflict. Militaries need to procure systems designed for large-scale, sustained mobilizations. The emphasis should shift from acquiring a limited number of expensive, cutting-edge platforms to prioritizing high-quantity, cost-effective systems that can be rapidly replenished through sustained production efforts.

He further notes that building a military capable of launching a war is not the same as ensuring one that can sustain and win that war. This insight underscores the need to develop flexible and innovative manufacturing processes during peacetime to support rapid scaling of equipment production in wartime. Nielsen frames this as building an army for the early stages of conflict while preparing to produce the equipment for subsequent forces during the conflict itself.

Strategic Considerations in Long-Range Fires

Nielsen highlights the importance of investing in long-range missile capabilities and effective defensive systems. Despite some progress being made, primarily due to Ukraine’s initiatives, most European nations remain ill-prepared for large-scale missile strikes from adversaries like Russia and are not equipped to retaliate. He notes that Europe lags significantly behind Russia in terms of missile and drone production capabilities, making this an area of urgent focus.

To balance the scales, Nielsen emphasizes that addressing missile defense is only part of the equation. For Europe to effectively counter long-range threats, it must develop robust offensive capabilities. Without these, European nations will not be able to strike back at enemy production facilities or disrupt a rival's war economy. He concludes that long-range missile weapons and associated defensive systems are as critical as the advancements in frontline drones and robotics, creating a dual revolution in military technology that must be embraced.

The Continuing Role of Heavy Platforms in Warfare

Despite the revolutionary advancements in drone and missile technology, Nielsen stresses that traditional military platforms still have irreplaceable roles. Human involvement on the battlefield is not going away anytime soon. Tasks like meaningful face-to-face communication in conflict zones and other complex, nuanced operations cannot be effectively managed by machines. Moreover, assets like armored vehicles and tanks continue to play vital roles. By providing critical protection for deployed soldiers, they enhance their chances of survival in active conflict zones.

Nielsen also explores the unique challenges posed by maritime operations. Warships like frigates and destroyers, while expensive and vulnerable in high-intensity conflicts such as those witnessed in the Black Sea, remain indispensable for specific missions. These include expeditionary operations where militaries are deployed far from their home territories to maintain presence, conduct anti-piracy operations, or support stability missions elsewhere. Such roles require robust, versatile platforms capable of sustained deployment, which cannot be fulfilled by current drone technologies.

Nielsen concludes by noting the inherent tension between embracing revolutionary technologies like drones and preserving traditional platforms. Balancing these needs is crucial to maintaining a capable, adaptable military that can address the complex defense challenges of today and tomorrow. While drones fundamentally change the nature of warfare, traditional capabilities remain essential, whether for large-scale conflicts or operations beyond high-intensity warzones. A balanced approach to procurement and resource allocation is vital to safely navigate the evolving defense landscape.

What was said, and when

The points this article makes, and the moment in the recording where each was said. Every time below opens the recording at that moment.

• Rising defense budgets across Europe are in response to growing geopolitical tensions. 00:42.
• The ongoing revolution in military affairs is driven by technological advancements observed in the conflict in Ukraine. 00:45.
• Traditional platforms like tanks, fighter jets, and warships have historically defined military preparedness but their continued relevance is questioned in light of emerging technologies. 00:07.
• Nielsen highlights that drones represent a transformative shift in military technology comparable to historic innovations like aircraft or tanks. 01:26.
• According to Nielsen, the introduction of drones divides warfare into 'before' and 'after' their widespread use. 01:54.
• Nielsen emphasizes that drones have reduced the attacker's advantage of surprise by enabling defenders to monitor the battlefield in real time. 02:22.
• Drones have lowered the cost of firepower and increased the volume of available firepower. 02:35.
• Drones shift the balance between attritional warfare and maneuver warfare, emphasizing the renewed importance of attritional warfare. 02:46.
• Nielsen asserts that unmanned systems will play a primary role in attrition-focused operations, with manned systems engaging in decisive maneuver warfare later. 03:25.
• Nielsen predicts that affordable firepower from unmanned technologies is reshaping the battlefield, placing emphasis on attritional warfare. 01:15.
• Contemporary warfare requires shifting from acquiring high-cost equipment to procurement emphasizing high-quantity, cost-effective systems. 04:10.
• Militaries need systems designed for large-scale, sustained mobilizations. 10:39.
• Nielsen stresses the need to prepare for rapid scaling of equipment production during wartime. 06:04.
• Nielsen highlights the importance of investing in long-range missile capabilities and defensive systems to address missile threats. 07:20.
• Most European nations remain ill-prepared for large-scale missile strikes from adversaries like Russia. 07:00.
• Europe lags behind Russia in missile and drone production capabilities. 06:45.
• Nielsen asserts that addressing missile defense alone is insufficient; Europe must also develop robust offensive capabilities. 07:20.
• Long-range missile weapons and related defensive systems are critical, alongside advancements in frontline drones and robotics. 07:51.
• Despite advancements in drones and missile technology, Nielsen believes traditional platforms like tanks and armored vehicles remain crucial in providing protection for soldiers. 08:12.
• Nielsen discusses the challenges posed by maritime operations, stating that warships like frigates and destroyers remain indispensable for specific missions despite their cost and vulnerability. 08:53.
• Nielsen concludes that balancing revolutionary technologies like drones with traditional platforms is essential for military effectiveness in modern defense scenarios. 10:30.
• Nielsen underscores that adapting military doctrines, training protocols, and procurement strategies is necessary for leveraging emerging technologies such as drones while retaining traditional capabilities. 01:51.