Force Design Principles from Emutopia: Lessons on Military Structure

Introducing Emutopia's Force Design Exercise

Perun begins by outlining the concept behind a hypothetical military force design exercise, meant both to educate and entertain. Drawing on real-world examples of failed military procurement decisions, the exercise uses a fictional nation, Emutopia, to highlight critical lessons in force structure and strategic planning. Emutopia is portrayed as a wealthy, resource-rich island nation with natural deterrents and a strategic rivalry with a smaller neighbor, Kiwiland.

For this exercise, Perun invited a variety of contributors, including military professionals, private sector consultants, government representatives, and supporters from a military-focused think tank, to propose equipment purchases for Emutopia’s military modernization plan. While many contributors made grounded suggestions, naming infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) like Ajax, others leaned toward the outlandish, nominating assets ranging from battleships to orbital bombardment systems.

Perun's role in this exploration was not only to justify every proposal in a convincing way but also to consider logistical constraints, economic decisions, and long-term strategic risks. The deliberate absurdity of some submissions, such as the Death Star, was balanced by the opportunity to extrapolate broader lessons on procurement and strategy. The exercise laid out the fictional military's focus on quality, deployability, and ally interoperability while satirizing some of the pitfalls in real-world decision-making.

Ground Forces: From Rifles to Robots

The discussion of Emutopia’s ground forces starts with a controversial nomination for the nation’s new standard service rifle: the American M7, a modern battle rifle with high chamber pressure and significant muzzle velocity. Perun notes that, unlike Emutopia's current 5.56 NATO chambered rifles favored for compatibility with global allies and logistical convenience, the M7 opts for greater range and firepower at a cost. He highlights the practical trade-offs, especially regarding the larger caliber rounds, which limit how much ammunition soldiers can carry without adding significant weight.

Citing lessons from the Ukraine conflict, Perun points out how excess weight can hinder infantry mobility during prolonged dismounted operations. Troops there have often prioritized lightweight and versatile gear, with longer-range threats managed primarily by artillery, drones, and loitering munitions rather than small arms. Thus, the heavier M7 becomes harder to justify, yet it was selected for Emutopia by leveraging arguments about the need for “punch” to counter imagined future threats, including armored robotic combatants.

Perun details the growing use of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) on modern battlefields, particularly for logistics and frontline combat support. While current UGVs lack substantial armor, future iterations might incorporate greater protection, spurring the rationale for a rifle capable of piercing hypothetical robotic armor. He wryly observes that Emutopia's procurement criteria can be shaped to favor the M7, emphasizing its ability to address these speculative threats.

On the topic of heavy armor, suggestions for Emutopia’s tank procurement centered around Russia’s T-14 Armata, despite its well-documented production challenges and limited deployment in Ukraine. Perun explains that the tank was initially envisioned as a game-changing design, but cost overruns and strategic priorities led the Russian military to scale back its ambitions. Nonetheless, for Emutopia, the uncrewed turret design of the T-14 provides a convenient narrative about prioritizing crew safety and expeditionary weight considerations.

Perun also introduces lighter, more flexible alternatives to traditional armored vehicles, such as technicals, which are improvised fighting vehicles based on civilian pickup trucks. Drawing from examples in Ukraine, where technicals have been used effectively for launching guided missiles and carrying anti-air systems, he highlights their cost-efficiency, adaptability, and relevance to certain combat scenarios. However, he cautions against relying on such vehicles in high-threat environments or counterinsurgency operations, suggesting that their utility lies in complementing heavier, more protected formations.

Reimagining Recruitment Through Procurement

An especially unconventional suggestion from the Emutopian committee was the acquisition of 100 Lamborghinis for military reconnaissance. While initially entertaining the idea of repurposing the LM002, a past Lamborghini foray into off-road vehicles, Perun decided to fully embrace the absurdity of the proposal. The solution imagines handing over a portion of these vehicles for specialized reconnaissance roles in limited applications, such as racetrack reconnaissance, while reserving the remaining fleet for headquarters use.

However, Perun points out that the real value of this proposal lies not in its tactical merit but in its potential for recruitment and retention. Recognizing that military forces, especially volunteer-based ones, face challenges in attracting and retaining personnel, he argues that big-ticket perks like Lamborghinis could serve as flashy recruitment tools for younger audiences.

While the notion of weekend Lamborghini use for morale and outreach may seem frivolous, Perun ties it to a broader point about the importance of perception and incentives in boosting enlistment and engagement. Weapon systems and vehicles, even those with limited practical battlefield applications, can also perform "soft power" functions, shaping public opinion and fostering a sense of aspiration among potential recruits.

Naval Ambitions of Emutopia

Perun introduces the naval component of Emutopia with an acknowledgment that, in a pragmatic military scenario, the focus would likely rest on securing maritime supply lines, anti-submarine warfare capabilities, and commerce protection. This would typically involve a balanced force of maritime reconnaissance drones, offshore patrol vessels (OPVs), frigates, and destroyers optimized for versatile functionality. However, the Emutopian design takes a decidedly unconventional route, with one initial suggestion being submarine aircraft carriers.

Drawing parallels with historical efforts such as Japan's I-400 submarine project, Perun delves into the challenges of adapting such a concept to modern naval operations. In theory, the idea holds appeal as it combines stealth and airstrike capabilities. Yet, the immense engineering hurdles and ballooning costs would make such an endeavor ill-suited for Emutopia’s budget. The committee's specifications complicate things further with the suggestion of using the old Soviet Yakovlev Yak-141 VTOL aircraft as the submersible's primary airframe. This choice is burdened by the aircraft's obsolescence and out-of-production status.

To produce a workable solution, Perun proposes rethinking the idea. Instead of a traditional aircraft-carrying submersible, Emutopia could adopt the concept of extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) like the Australian Ghost Shark or the American Orca. These platforms have growing appeal among global navies due to their affordability, long endurance, and adaptability. By modifying such UUVs to deploy FPVs (first-person view drones) or loitering munitions, Emutopia could unleash swarms of high-precision payloads targeting strategic coastal installations, such as air defenses and radars. This approach would be cost-effective and align with the concept of influencing adversaries by saturating them with asymmetric threats, effectively forcing them to overallocate defense resources.

Perun also discusses the scalability of this strategy. These uncrewed systems could be designed for mass wartime production with a focus on using commercial off-the-shelf components, facilitating rapid deployments during crises. While such systems may have limited peacetime roles, their value in high-end conflicts lies in their capability to disrupt enemy operations and act as a strategic deterrent.

However, the committee’s naval aspirations escalate from this relatively pragmatic approach. A push for two Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers creates significant logistical and financial hurdles for Emutopia. Perun highlights that such carriers, while highly capable, would require unprecedented investments in shipbuilding infrastructure, substantial operational costs, and large dedicated crew complements. All of this would strain the Emutopian Navy’s resources.

To make this vision feasible, Perun suggests an inventive solution: a multinational "time-share" carrier fleet involving partnerships with Canada and the United Kingdom. Under this arrangement, the carriers would rotate between nations, reducing individual costs while maximizing strategic flexibility. While managing such shared assets would involve contentious political and logistical challenges (especially in crisis scenarios), the cooperative model could facilitate a fleet capable of providing carrier-based power projection across multiple theaters. Importantly, Perun notes that this arrangement might still detract funding and resources from other vital components, such as surface escorts.

The committee’s most audacious naval proposal involves equipping Emutopia with battleships outfitted with modern technologies. Perun observes that the suggested design, a battlewagon featuring lasers, a flight deck, vertical launch systems (VLS), and auxiliary facilities, draws inspiration from Soviet-era aviation cruisers like the Kiev class. However, modernizing such ships would require significant adaptations, including the replacement of bulky aircraft with drones and the integration of directed energy weapons for defense. While this hybrid battleship could theoretically fulfill multiple roles, its immense cost and limited strategic applicability make it a contentious addition to the naval force structure.

Ultimately, Perun views the assembled naval fleet as a study in extremes: a concentration of high-end capabilities in carriers, battleships, and underwater drones at the expense of middle-tier assets like frigates and patrol boats. While this fleet might excel in coalition operations or regional conflicts, it would struggle to manage broader maritime responsibilities or compete against major naval powers. This imbalance underscores the emphasis placed on asymmetric strategies, such as the disruptive potential of advanced UUVs, over traditional naval doctrine.

The Case of Space Weapons and Orbital Strikes

Building on the committee’s escalating ambitions, Perun introduces their space-based warfare proposals, which he acknowledges as some of the most outlandish of the entire exercise. Chief among these is the idea of developing a kinetic bombardment system, colloquially known as “rods from God,” despite the significant logistical and financial hurdles of deploying such a weapon system.

Perun outlines the concept of orbital kinetic bombardment: launching dense penetrators such as tungsten rods into space and then de-orbiting them toward specific ground targets. These weapons leverage gravity to achieve immense kinetic energy upon re-entry, theoretically capable of penetrating hardened structures like missile silos, ships, or aircraft shelters. Unlike warheads equipped with explosives, these rods achieve destructive power purely through their high-velocity impacts.

Perun explains that, while this idea is not entirely new, it gained attention during the Cold War and persisted in military discussions thereafter. A 2002 RAND report for the U.S. Air Force, titled Space Weapons Earth Wars, elaborated on the potential advantages of space-based weapons. The report highlighted four key benefits: rapid global reach, rapid response times measured in minutes or hours, difficulty of defense against high-velocity strikes, and their capacity to bypass conventional anti-missile defenses.

However, Perun tempers this potential with significant practical challenges. Orbiting kinetic weapons would require not only substantial financial outlays for launch and maintenance but also a vast network of satellites to ensure global coverage. Moreover, these systems would be vulnerable to attack by adversaries with anti-satellite technology, compromising their long-term viability. Even precise attacks would face limitations, as certain target types, such as runways or deeply buried bunkers, would likely remain unaffected.

Given these technical and logistical obstacles, Perun raises doubts about the merits of pursuing such a system but underscores its appeal in wargaming contexts. In scenarios involving limited scope or specific objectives, such as striking select targets in a constrained theater, the system could offer asymmetric advantages. However, it would be challenging to sell this concept as a realistic or sustainable element of any comprehensive force design.

By focusing on examples such as the historical Soviet Almaz space station, earlier RAND studies, and Cold War-era thought experiments, Perun situates the committee’s suggestions within the broader context of military space operations. However, he acknowledges that the real-world hurdles of cost, technological capability, treaty constraints, and strategic viability render this concept highly speculative. Even so, he notes that space weapons like these appeal to the adventurous imaginations of defense committee members keen on futuristic, attention-grabbing military capabilities.

Reimagining Recruitment Through Procurement (Continued)

Perun transitions to the challenges and opportunities involved in integrating unconventional elements into recruitment and retention strategies for Emutopia's military. He explains that the absurdity of some suggestions, such as incorporating luxury vehicles like Lamborghinis into military recruitment, reflects the broader challenge of attracting and retaining young people in military service. While it might appear ridiculous, the idea serves as a reminder that creative strategies can sometimes be employed to stimulate interest and improve perceptions of a military career. He acknowledges that such initiatives could generate publicity value but cautions that, from a practical and operational standpoint, they might fail to address deeper structural challenges.

When retaining personnel, Perun emphasizes the larger issue of balancing financial incentives, career opportunity, and personal development. The cost of replacing military personnel due to attrition or poor recruitment is significant, making it essential to adopt a comprehensive approach to recruitment. While handing out exclusive perks might grab attention, he argues such methods may not align with the core imperatives of operational capability or long-term sustainability.

Concluding Thoughts on Force Design Principles

Perun wraps up by extracting key lessons from the fictional exercise of designing Emutopia’s absurd military. He stresses that procurement decisions must always align with a clear and coherent force-wide operational strategy. Without this alignment, militaries risk selecting specialist equipment that looks impressive on paper but falls short when integrated into the broader force. A weapon system should not just meet a list of technical specifications; it must enhance the operational goals of the entire military.

He underscores the importance of clearly distinguishing between "requirements," which are must-haves, and "nice-to-haves," which often stem from "bright idea" suggestions that can derail an acquisition program. Perun emphasizes the risks of setting overly broad operational requirements or including prescriptive specifications that could inadvertently limit creativity and innovation. By maintaining clarity and precision during the formulation of requirements, decision-makers ensure that the chosen equipment is effective and aligned with the military’s needs.

Another lesson he discusses is the danger of "tunnel vision" during procurement. Individual platforms that seem to have exceptional technical capabilities may not ultimately be the right choice for the overall force. For example, while investing heavily in large, sophisticated assets like aircraft carriers or unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) might make sense in isolation, such decisions could lead to gaps in other critical areas, such as insufficient escorts for a balanced naval force. According to Perun, understanding the opportunity costs and integrating systems into a coherent strategy remains a critical and often overlooked element of sound force design.

Perun also highlights the importance of adaptable use for military assets. Rather than discarding or replacing equipment that fails to meet its original purpose, militaries have frequently repurposed platforms for more effective roles. He provides historical examples such as the Hawker Typhoon, initially designed as a fighter but later excelling as a ground-attack aircraft, and the Messerschmitt 110, which found success as a night fighter despite struggles in its original role as a heavy day fighter. He emphasizes that recycling and adapting existing equipment can be more cost-effective and practical than developing entirely new systems. This holds true in terms of both expenses and the training and sustainment infrastructure required.

Perun closes the discussion by noting a final point: the importance of maintaining critical oversight during a major procurement process. The very way requirements are set can strongly influence the final selection, and the process can lend itself to systemic bias or inefficiencies. With humor, he suggests that perhaps turning over procurement decisions to the internet might not be the best strategy, given the sometimes outlandish nature of crowd-sourced suggestions. However, he praises the creative thinking behind many of the ideas he reviewed and their underlying intent to improve military capabilities.

Perun concludes by thanking his audience and contributors, indicating plans for future episodes that will delve into more traditional or serious topics. He reflects on the creative and occasionally serious nature of the suggestions he received, acknowledging their potential relevance to other scenarios or future discussions. Despite the comedic tone of the exercise, he argues that it illuminates genuinely important lessons in force design and resource allocation, bridging the line between entertainment and insightful analysis.

What was said, and when

The points this article makes, and the moment in the recording where each was said. Every time below opens the recording at that moment.

• Perun outlines the concept behind a hypothetical military force design exercise, using the fictional nation of Emutopia. 00:43.
• Emutopia is described as a wealthy, resource-rich island nation with natural deterrents and a strategic rivalry with Kiwiland. 03:17.
• Contributors to the exercise include military professionals, private sector consultants, government representatives, and supporters from a military-focused think tank. 00:43.
• A controversial nomination for Emutopia’s new standard service rifle is the American M7. 05:12.
• The M7 is a modern battle rifle with high chamber pressure and significant muzzle velocity. 05:18.
• The M7 offers greater range and firepower but its larger caliber rounds limit how much ammunition soldiers can carry without adding significant weight. 06:19.
• Lessons from the Ukraine conflict suggest excess weight can hinder infantry mobility during prolonged operations. 06:55.
• Current trends towards prioritizing lightweight gear for infantry. 06:55.
• Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are increasingly used for logistics and frontline combat support. 08:08.
• Future UGVs might incorporate greater protection, introducing rationale for heavier rifles capable of piercing robotic armor. 08:52.
• Suggestions for tank procurement included Russia’s T-14 Armata. 10:19.
• The T-14 Armata’s initial role as a game-changing design, later hindered by cost overruns and strategic priorities. 10:47.
• Lighter alternatives to traditional armored vehicles such as technicals are suggested, citing their use in Ukraine for launching guided missiles and carrying anti-air systems. 15:11.
• The committee suggested the acquisition of 100 Lamborghinis for military reconnaissance. 15:55.
• Perun explores the recruitment and retention value of unconventional military assets like luxury vehicles. 16:54.
• Space-based warfare proposals included a kinetic bombardment system known as “rods from God.”. 35:10.
• Orbiting kinetic weapons launch dense penetrators into space and de-orbit them toward ground targets with immense kinetic energy upon re-entry. 36:20.
• Benefits outlined for space weapons include rapid global reach, rapid response times, and difficulty of defense against high-velocity strikes. 44:10.
• Challenges for deploying orbital systems include financial outlays, vulnerability to anti-satellite technology, and limited global coverage. 40:49.
• Examples such as the Soviet Almaz space station and Cold War-era designs are used to contextualize space-based military concepts. 35:54.
• Naval proposals included two Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carriers. 23:48.
• A multinational "time-share" carrier fleet involving partnerships with Canada and the UK. 24:34.
• The committee proposed outfitting Emutopia with battleships incorporating modern technologies. 27:27.
• Suggested battleship designs included lasers, flight decks, vertical launch systems, and facilities inspired by Soviet-era aviation cruisers. 27:43.
• Perun contrasts high-end naval capabilities with potential neglect of middle-tier assets like frigates and patrol boats. 32:45.
• Examples such as the Hawker Typhoon and Messerschmitt 110 demonstrate how repurposing existing equipment can improve cost-effectiveness. 58:21.
• Perun highlights the importance of clear requirements and avoiding overly broad operational specifications in procurement processes. 56:09.
• He warns against tunnel vision during procurement that prioritizes single platforms at the expense of overall force balance. 57:28.
• The creative proposals for Emutopia's military illuminate lessons in force design and resource allocation. 03:40.