Comparing Chinese and Iranian Ballistic Missile Strategies

Introduction to Ballistic Missile Capabilities

According to Covert Cabal, both China and Iran have focused heavily on building significant ballistic missile arsenals. The two countries are among the leaders globally in terms of the quantity and variety of these weapons. Despite their similar emphasis on ballistic missile development, their underlying doctrines and employment strategies differ considerably.

In China, ballistic missile operations fall under the centralized command of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Forces (PLARF), which oversees a well-structured and hierarchical framework. Iran's approach, however, lacks such centralization. Its missiles are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates with more flexibility across dispersed and often concealed locations.

Surprisingly, estimates suggest that Iran had a larger ballistic missile arsenal than China before a recent uptick in missile use, with some assessments indicating the possession of thousands of units. Nonetheless, the ways in which China and Iran deploy these weapons, and the strategic objectives they seek to achieve, are notably distinct.

Organization of Chinese Ballistic Missile Forces

Covert Cabal explains that China’s ballistic missile forces fall entirely under the PLARF, a single, centralized military branch that manages all ground-based ballistic missiles. These forces are organized into nine bases, which function as separate operational and support entities rather than traditional military installations. Six of the bases are operational and house missiles, while the remaining three serve as support facilities.

The operational bases are structured with six to eight brigades each. For instance, the third brigade at Base 62 is referred to as the 623rd Missile Brigade. Each brigade specializes in a single type of missile, which can range from ballistic and hypersonic to cruise missiles. These weapons are equipped with a mix of warheads, both conventional and nuclear, with some even having dual-use capabilities. This creates potential identification challenges during conflicts, as it is not always clear whether an enemy missile is armed with a nuclear or conventional payload.

To illustrate the functionality of these brigades, Covert Cabal highlights the 666th Missile Brigade, which operates the DF-26 missile. Entering service in 2016, this versatile weapon has both nuclear and conventional warhead options as well as variants for striking land and maritime targets. Its extended range even allows it to target locations as distant as Guam, significantly impacting U.S. military strategy in the Pacific. China's missile inventory includes a variety of ranges, with systems designated for short- and medium-range attacks on Taiwan and U.S. bases in East Asia, and medium-range missiles aimed at more distant strategic targets like Guam.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Force Dynamics

In contrast to China’s centralized organization, Iran’s ballistic missile forces are controlled by the IRGC, bypassing the country’s traditional armed forces, or Artesh. Covert Cabal underscores that this division stems from a historical suspicion of the Artesh following the Iranian Revolution. Iran's missile bases are dispersed across the country, with strategic positioning in the west to target Israel and in the south to reach U.S. and allied bases in the Persian Gulf. Notably, many of these facilities are situated underground to provide protection against aerial attacks.

Covert Cabal highlights that while Iran's missile bases are subject to greater vulnerability than China’s due to their less advanced infrastructure, years of adversarial scrutiny have pushed Iran toward innovative, resilient solutions. For instance, while U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have targeted the entrances to underground missile sites, Iranian forces have often been able to quickly clear rubble to regain access and continue operations.

Iran’s missiles are diverse both in type and purpose, offering a dynamic and adaptable arsenal. According to Covert Cabal, they prioritize their weapons for two types of ranges: short-range missiles stationed in southern Iran for targeting regional bases, and medium-range missiles that can reach over 1,000 kilometers to strike deep into territories like Israel. Despite an active recent launch campaign that has significantly depleted its stockpile, Iran continues to release new missile variants or upgrade existing ones, making it a challenge for foreign intelligence to accurately track their capabilities.

Technological and Doctrinal Differences

Covert Cabal emphasizes that China and Iran diverge significantly in their deployment and technological strategies. While China relies on advanced engineering, incorporating cutting-edge guidance systems and real-time targeting capabilities into its missiles, Iran adopts a different approach, emphasizing operational flexibility and resourceful use of more limited technologies.

China’s missile forces are supported by a robust “destruction chain,” a series of systems that ensure precision targeting and operational success. This integrated capability includes long-range reconnaissance drones, ships, ground surveillance teams, and a vast satellite network with real-time imagery, radar, and sensor data. This enables China to build a detailed, live map of target locations and adapt its missile strikes in real time. By contrast, Iran relies primarily on commercial satellite images or data obtained from allies like China and Russia. However, such imagery is sometimes outdated by hours or even days, limiting Iran’s ability to strike current enemy locations effectively.

Iran’s advancements are characterized by continual iterations aimed at improving the accuracy and reliability of its missiles. Its short-range missiles, which target regional adversaries, have demonstrated impressive precision. However, its longer-range missiles struggle with accuracy, which works against the success of its strategic objectives.

Impact of Strategic Goals on Missiles Deployment

Covert Cabal argues that the difference in national strategic goals significantly influences missile deployment in both countries. For China, the focus is on deterring regional powers such as the United States and safeguarding its broader national interests. Its doctrine relies on massive initial missile salvos to disable an opponent’s command-and-control systems, air bases, and defenses. The objective during a potential conflict, such as with Taiwan, would be to achieve decisive results quickly. Time is not on China’s side, as a prolonged campaign would increase the risk of foreign intervention and reduce the likelihood of success.

Iran’s approach is more patient and opportunistic due to its reliance on asymmetric warfare. It uses its missiles to erode the will of stronger adversaries like the U.S., aiming to increase the economic and political cost of prolonged engagement. Over the last five months, Iran has launched numerous missile strikes, demonstrating a strategy focused on persistence. While many of these projectiles were intercepted, those that hit their targets have inflicted enough damage to generate strategic impacts.

These contrasting strategies reflect the divergent military priorities of the two nations. China’s well-resourced approach focuses on large-scale preparedness and precision, while Iran adapts its limited means to sustain long-term conflict at a lower cost.

What was said, and when

The points this article makes, and the moment in the recording where each was said. Every time below opens the recording at that moment.

• According to Covert Cabal, both China and Iran have focused heavily on building significant ballistic missile arsenals. 00:16.
• China's ballistic missile operations fall under the centralized command of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Forces (PLARF). 02:07.
• Iran's ballistic missile operations are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates flexibly across dispersed and concealed locations. 04:27.
• Estimates suggest that Iran had a larger ballistic missile arsenal than China before a recent uptick in missile use, with the arsenal consisting of thousands of units. 00:31.
• China’s ballistic missile forces are managed entirely by the PLARF, organized into nine bases. 02:07.
• Six of the nine PLARF bases are operational and house missiles, while the remaining three serve as support facilities. 02:14.
• The operational bases are structured with six to eight brigades each. 02:31.
• Each PLARF brigade specializes in a single type of missile, which can be ballistic, hypersonic, or cruise, with warheads ranging from conventional to nuclear. 02:52.
• The 666th Missile Brigade operates the DF-26 missile, which has nuclear and conventional warhead options and can strike land and maritime targets. 03:30.
• The DF-26 missile entered service in 2016. 03:32.
• The DF-26 can target locations as far away as Guam. 03:28.
• China possesses missile systems designated for short- and medium-range targeting of Taiwan and U.S. bases in East Asia, and medium-range systems for strategic targets like Guam. 04:07.
• Iran’s missile forces are controlled entirely by the IRGC, bypassing the country’s Artesh. 04:27.
• Iran's missile bases are dispersed across the country, including strategic positions in the west targeting Israel and the south targeting U.S. and allied bases in the Persian Gulf. 04:43.
• Many Iranian missile facilities are underground to protect them from aerial attacks. 04:55.
• Iran’s short-range missiles are positioned in southern Iran for targeting regional bases. 04:53.
• Iran’s medium-range missiles can reach over 1,000 kilometers to strike territories like Israel. 05:33.
• U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeting entrances to underground Iranian missile sites have been addressed by Iranian forces clearing rubble to regain access and continue operations. 05:03.
• Iran has launched numerous missile strikes over the last five months. 05:37.
• Iran has demonstrated persistent missile strikes, with some causing damage sufficient to produce strategic impacts. 05:37.
• China incorporates advanced guidance systems and real-time targeting capabilities into its missiles. 06:47.
• China uses a ‘destruction chain’ supported by reconnaissance drones, ships, ground surveillance, and satellites to ensure precision targeting. 06:47.
• Iran relies primarily on commercial satellite imagery or data from allies like China and Russia, which can sometimes be outdated. 06:29.
• Iran’s short-range missiles have shown strong precision capabilities. 05:49.
• Iran’s longer-range missiles struggle with accuracy, reducing their strategic effectiveness. 05:49.
• China’s strategic objective focuses on rapid, decisive impacts using massive missile salvos to disable adversaries’ command systems, bases, and defenses. 08:26.
• Iran’s strategic approach focuses on eroding the will of adversaries by increasing the political and economic costs of engagement through persistent missile use. 08:10.
• China aims to achieve quick results during conflicts such as potential actions involving Taiwan. 07:56.
• Iran has focused on asymmetric warfare strategies that sustain prolonged conflict at lower costs. 08:10.